Airline statistics can be a bore, until you consider that they reflect the sort of places you can travel, the options open to you, and the prices you pay. To that end the International Air Transport Association says June numbers show “A slight softening in demand for…air travel.”
In a prepared release IATA says that while “the trend for passenger travel remains upwards,” it’s “at a slower pace than the post-recession rebound.” That rebound was moving along at a rate close to 10 percent. For June, it was 4.4 percent. IATA says the dialed-down demand “reflects slower economic growth and increased costs resulting from higher jet fuel prices and (in some countries anyway) increased taxes.”
One of the most telling statistics to come out of IATA’s June report is that world-wide load factors (the percentage of seats filled by paying passengers) was 79 percent.
Cheapflights’ take on the stat: It could well be harder to find that elusive empty middle seat these days, and—perhaps—harder to book at a last-minute ticket at a price that’s affordable.
The international skyscape isn’t even. Some areas are growing far faster than others. Here’s how things look in some key regions:
- In the United States, domestic travel grew a modest 1.3 percent during June. Week by week, Cheapflights has chronicled new domestic air routes. But we’ve also detailed how lots of domestic flights are being axed, the casualty of still-high fuel prices.
- International European traffic growth is robust. It expanded 8.9 percent during June. The impetus behind that number? “The weak Euro is supporting strong inbound travel.” The fact is reflected by the fact some airlines are shifting seats from domestic to international routes. That means more European connection opportunities for you, and—perhaps—cheaper flights. International European load factors stood at 80.9 percent in June.
- Asian airlines are still being hard hit by the Japanese earthquake tsunami this past March. The region grew modestly, just 3.3 percent in June. Load factors are just 76 percent. Depending on your destination, that could mean cheaper and less crowded flights. Reflective of the fact some airlines have been cutting flights to the area is American Airlines’ decision to suspend New York JFK flights to Tokyo Haneda International Airport. That route will be suspended Sept. 6 and isn’t scheduled to return till the summer of 2012.
- Middle East airlines continue to lay on seats at a rapid rate. Seat capacity grew 8.4 percent in June. Granted, not a lot of leisure travelers are taking vacation trips to the tumultuous region these days, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t using high-quality, service-intensive airlines like Emirates to connect to onward destinations. Emirates is leaving U.S., European, and even some Asian airlines in the dust in terms of expansion. Consider, Dubai-based Emirates already flies 15 gargantuan A380s, and has an astounding 75 more of the megajumbos on order. For all that, while Middle East carriers continue to grow that growth is more moderate than before.
This moderated growth reflects “that the rising jet fuel price is putting pressure on the bottom line,” says IATA Director General and CEO Tony Tyler. As long as that’s happening airlines will continue to either trim seats or curtail their growth. And that directly affects the way you fly.
Story by Jerry Chandler
(Image: timo_w2s)
